How to use this calculator
- Enter positive outcome amount, other outcome amount, probability of first outcome (%).
- Choose a display currency, then select Calculate. Results also update after a brief pause while you edit.
- Read the result with the assumptions below. Export details or save a second scenario to compare your choices.
Formula and method
EMV=p×first outcome+(1−p)×second outcome.
Assumptions and limitations
Probabilities are user assumptions; expected value is neither a likely single result nor a measure of risk tolerance.
Worked example
With positive outcome amount = 1000, other outcome amount = -200, probability of first outcome (%) = 30, expected monetary value is approximately 160.
What the result means
Calculate the probability-weighted value of a two-outcome scenario.
Common questions
How should I interpret expected monetary value?
Calculate the probability-weighted value of a two-outcome scenario.
What should I check before using this result?
Probabilities are user assumptions; expected value is neither a likely single result nor a measure of risk tolerance.
Methodology and transparency
Calculation specification reviewed on 2026-10-14. Mathematical implementation is tested against independent reference fixtures. This does not imply review by a licensed financial professional. Read the testing and precision policy.